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US 2016 Presidential Election (Part Let's Try This Again)


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#1 RhyssaFireheart

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 08:39 AM

As the title says - going to let you guys try again.  

 

Keep it civil and polite.  

 

You can disagree with someone's points all  you want, but don't attack the person.  

 

Don't just link to articles, give commentary.  

 

No one word posts/responses.

 

Behave.


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#2 GintaMan

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 09:48 AM

OMG. I am hoping for the best in this new thread. Last time, whenever I check the old thread...

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#3 Oben

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 10:20 AM

So I guess no Republican will get the absolute majority of delegates. From what I've heard, this means free game, so who is likliest to come out considering everybody seems to hate Trump and Cruz?



#4 Phenomiracle

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 10:34 AM

Does someone have an explanation of delegate math, and how they function in the primaries?

 

This popped up on my feed, since my friends' list is littered with Berniebots. Have too little time at the moment to make sense of it. On its face, Sanders crushes Clinton by 12 points yet the latter scampers with the higher net delegate count.

 


Edited by Phenomiracle, 12 April 2016 - 10:35 AM.

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#5 Oben

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 10:43 AM

Does someone have an explanation of delegate math, and how they function in the primaries?

 

This popped up on my feed, since my friends' list is littered with Berniebots. Have too little time at the moment to make sense of it. On its face, Sanders crushes Clinton by 12 points yet the latter scampers with the higher net delegate count.

 

They both got 7 pledged delegates, because Sanders' lead apprently isn't great enough to make it 8-6 (which is the only surprising part to me), and Clinton also has 4 superdelegates whose allegiance is unrelated to the outcome of the voting, making it 7-11 in the 18 the state has in total.

 

Sanders Pledged 7

Clinton Pledged 7

Sanders Super 0

Clinton Super 4


Edited by Oben, 12 April 2016 - 10:44 AM.

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#6 AlphaTakoyaki

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 11:21 AM

It should be mathematically impossible for Cruz to secure a majority before the convention by April 19th. That being said, he seems to be filling delegate spots with his own supporters so he may very well win the second ballot.

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#7 Oben

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 11:43 AM

It should be mathematically impossible for Cruz to secure a majority before the convention by April 19th. That being said, he seems to be filling delegate spots with his own supporters so he may very well win the second ballot.

 

It's still technically possible, but very unlikely. He'd need to win at least 90% of the remaining delegates, which he most definitely won't get.



#8 Greg

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 01:29 PM

They both got 7 pledged delegates, because Sanders' lead apprently isn't great enough to make it 8-6 (which is the only surprising part to me), and Clinton also has 4 superdelegates whose allegiance is unrelated to the outcome of the voting, making it 7-11 in the 18 the state has in total.

 

Sanders Pledged 7

Clinton Pledged 7

Sanders Super 0

Clinton Super 4

I always find it a little bit disingenuous to count superdelegates as belonging to a state. They're pretty parallel to the primary/caucus process.


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#9 AlphaTakoyaki

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 02:29 PM

It's still technically possible, but very unlikely. He'd need to win at least 90% of the remaining delegates, which he most definitely won't get.

I'm assuming Trump will win all of New York's delegates because of how well he's doing in the polls, meaning

http://www.thegreenp.../P16/R-PU.phtml

Cruz will need 695 when only 662 pledged delegates remain. Of course if somehow 33 more unpledged express support for him this would change. By april 26th, after pennsylvania, which has the bulk of the unpledged delegates, votes, we'll have a better idea, so i guess you're right in that the 19th is too soon to call


Edited by AlphaTakoyaki, 12 April 2016 - 05:48 PM.

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#10 /2aw

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 05:34 PM

Thanks @RhyssaFireheart

 

I'm an obvious Bernie supporter but I must say I don't even like the existence of super delegates.  I am very disappointed that his campaign would even consider trying to win them over. If Hillary gets the popular vote and the magic number, she should get the nomination. Point. Blank. Period. The same goes for Senater Sanders.

 

The republican nomination is really confusing me. Trump is going to win the popular vote. This is just a fact. He is also going to get the most delegates....another fact. Even if he doesn't get the magic number, why on earth would the republican establishment not just try and back (and win over) Trump? You are pretty much stuck with Cruz or Trump (neither of which will be as controllable as guys like Jeb please clap Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker etc...). If Trump gets the most delegates and votes and he doesn't get the nomination you are going to piss off a good 1/3-1/4 of the voting base. Even if he doesn't go 3rd party, all the Bernie or busters in the world wouldn't stop Hillary from becoming president (or Bernie cuz I'm still clinging to his slim chances :D)


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#11 Narubi

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 05:42 PM


to piss off a good 1/3-1/4 of the voting base.

 

Yeah. 

 

An that'll cause a major ruckus for sure. Considering that as is, that percentage or more of voters, already feel like the Establishment is against them and what not. So for the Establishment to prove them right. Would really create a major shit storm.

 

Add to the fact of talks going around about said voter base probably either not going to vote for Establishment favored candidate, or just leaving the Republican base and making a new Party base. In which case really hurting the Republicans, as that would diminish a portion of voters they need to get what they want ..... whatever that is of course.

 

Not sure really if we'd be seeing the rise of a new political party or not.

But I wouldn't be surprised if people decide not to vote for somebody that isn't Trump. 


Edited by Narubi, 12 April 2016 - 05:43 PM.


#12 Chillman

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 05:47 PM

Republicans don't think Trump will beat Hilary, and even if he could, they really don't like him.

#13 Narubi

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 05:50 PM

Republicans don't think Trump will beat Hilary, and even if he could, they really don't like him.

 

Yeah well they don't really like Cruz either from what's going around.

 

So really it seems like a lose/lose situation for them.

Unless Kasich is able to pull something to snag the win.



#14 AlphaTakoyaki

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 05:53 PM

Republicans don't think Trump will beat Hilary, and even if he could, they really don't like him.

Polls in early January showed Obama trailing McCain by a lot, and then in March ish he started to creep up. 

 

Reagan was also trailing carter by a lot at this time. 

 

Given how unconventional this election has been, we'll truly have to wait until the general starts to see if Republicans (and a lot of people) are right that Trump won't beat Hillary. 


 

Yeah well they don't really like Cruz either from what's going around.

 

So really it seems like a lose/lose situation for them.

Unless Kasich is able to pull something to snag the win.

Kasich is destroying Hillary in the polls, but if the RNC cheats the nomination, a lot of people are going to stay home so he'll lose anyway. 


Edited by AlphaTakoyaki, 12 April 2016 - 05:56 PM.

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#15 Narubi

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 06:51 PM


Kasich is destroying Hillary in the polls, but if the RNC cheats the nomination, a lot of people are going to stay home so he'll lose anyway. 

 

Same with Cruz if he wins. lol

 

Seems like the RNC are stuck between a Trump and a Hard Place.  :laugh:

 

In other news.

 

Paul Ryan says to "Count him Out" of trying for President at Convention.

 

Whether he really means it this time or not, is to be seen.

But the past times he said he wouldn't do this/that, he instead ended up doing this/that.

 

If he did though. I'm sure the RNC would be much happy with that.

Since they're desperate to have anything but Trump. lol



#16 JasonDM

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 07:08 PM

It's funny people keep asking the same question about why the Republican Party don't want to back Donald. Isn't it obvious? The Republican Party would rather burn then let Trump get the nomination, which is absurd and totally against the point of an election.

#17 AlphaTakoyaki

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 08:12 PM

Same with Cruz if he wins. lol

 

Seems like the RNC are stuck between a Trump and a Hard Place.  :laugh:

 

In other news.

 

Paul Ryan says to "Count him Out" of trying for President at Convention.

 

Whether he really means it this time or not, is to be seen.

But the past times he said he wouldn't do this/that, he instead ended up doing this/that.

 

If he did though. I'm sure the RNC would be much happy with that.

Since they're desperate to have anything but Trump. lol

I think people would be more accepting of Cruz than anyone else because of how well he's been doing so far. He's honestly the best chance at winning the general right now because the Republican base wouldn't be as upset. All I know is that if Ryan, or Rubio, or Jeb somehow jump back in, they're finished, every swing state would go to Hillary. 

 

 

 


It's funny people keep asking the same question about why the Republican Party don't want to back Donald. Isn't it obvious? The Republican Party would rather burn then let Trump get the nomination, which is absurd and totally against the point of an election.

 

Yeah they've been proving over and over again that the big donors, lobbyists, and people who offer them high paying jobs after they retire are more important to them than the voters.


Edited by AlphaTakoyaki, 12 April 2016 - 08:34 PM.

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#18 Greg

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 08:15 PM


The republican nomination is really confusing me. Trump is going to win the popular vote. This is just a fact. He is also going to get the most delegates....another fact. Even if he doesn't get the magic number, why on earth would the republican establishment not just try and back (and win over) Trump? You are pretty much stuck with Cruz or Trump (neither of which will be as controllable as guys like Jeb please clap Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker etc...). If Trump gets the most delegates and votes and he doesn't get the nomination you are going to piss off a good 1/3-1/4 of the voting base. Even if he doesn't go 3rd party, all the Bernie or busters in the world wouldn't stop Hillary from becoming president (or Bernie cuz I'm still clinging to his slim chances )

 

It's dangerous to view "The Republican Establishment" as a monolithic entity. It's not like Reince Priebus, the Koch brothers, Rupert Murdoch, and Jeb! all get in a room and pick the nominee (although it would probably make them all happy if that's how it works). The Republican establishment is a combination of elected officials at every level, the state Republican committees, the right wing media, the rank and file voters that dedicate time campaigning, et cetera. Each of these have different interests.

 

A plurality of the voters want Trump, so most pledged delegates go to Trump. Most Trump voters are not members of the political establishment in any sense of the word; Cruz on the other hand is much more savvy to the inner workings of the process and thus has the infrastructure to win at the delegate selection process, so a lot of the delegates will support him in later ballots. The punditocracy, the Acelas, the high up elected officials all hate both of course, but the rank-and-file unilaterally rejected Walker-Bush-Rubio. If this was the 1950s, then that would be the political establishment. But the establishment is more expansive than that, so it's unlikely any rabbits will be pulled out of hats.



#19 AlphaTakoyaki

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 08:58 PM

It's dangerous to view "The Republican Establishment" as a monolithic entity. It's not like Reince Priebus, the Koch brothers, Rupert Murdoch, and Jeb! all get in a room and pick the nominee (although it would probably make them all happy if that's how it works). The Republican establishment is a combination of elected officials at every level, the state Republican committees, the right wing media, the rank and file voters that dedicate time campaigning, et cetera. Each of these have different interests.

 

A plurality of the voters want Trump, so most pledged delegates go to Trump. Most Trump voters are not members of the political establishment in any sense of the word; Cruz on the other hand is much more savvy to the inner workings of the process and thus has the infrastructure to win at the delegate selection process, so a lot of the delegates will support him in later ballots. The punditocracy, the Acelas, the high up elected officials all hate both of course, but the rank-and-file unilaterally rejected Walker-Bush-Rubio. If this was the 1950s, then that would be the political establishment. But the establishment is more expansive than that, so it's unlikely any rabbits will be pulled out of hats.

The only rank and file members that are a part of the establishment are the people who blindly vote for Jeb-Rubio types just because they are who the party is touting. The majority of the rank and file aren't establishment. 

 

And tbh with all the allegations Trump has thrown about him being sleazy and the way the Colorado caucuses work, the rank and file will reject Cruz if he doesn't go into the convention with at least only a very slight gap between him and Trump. The delegates might be keeping that in mind. 


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#20 Greg

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Posted 12 April 2016 - 09:02 PM

The only rank and file members that are a part of the establishment are the people who blindly vote for Jeb-Rubio types just because they are who the party is touting. The majority of the rank and file aren't establishment. 

 

And tbh with all the allegations Trump has thrown about him being sleazy and the way the Colorado caucuses work, the rank and file will reject Cruz if he doesn't go into the convention with at least only a very slight gap between him and Trump. The delegates might be keeping that in mind. 

Rank-and-file are part of the political establishment inasmuch as they are able to do things like become delegates.


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