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#261 azer_moli

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Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:13 PM

I was under the impression that the Socialists were preparing to wash their hands of Hollande, given his unpopularity. That said, do the Socialists as whole not carry any traditional incumbent advantage going into 2017? 

 

What sort of impact has Trump's election had on French politics? Has it made French people wary in transforming their growing populist sentiment into political change, or are they becoming more receptive to the National Front?

 

 

Today, I read an article saying that Hollande had all the cards in hand to be the candidate for the Socialist Party. In a way, in the last couple of months, there were less unemployed people and Hollande has made some good cultural moves. And to be fair, there's no one to really go after him. Some names are coming up, but for now, it's quite vague... 

 

So far, not much. Most of them are waiting to see what will come out of it. Only Marine Le Pen was really happy about it. I haven't seen any change so far that would make people vote for Marine Le Pen because Trump won in the US. 

 

The whole thing about Fillon being the Right wing candidate was a big pile of bullshit: anyone was able to vote for electing the candidate of the right wing. Anyone. Whether you were a member of the Républicains (right wing party), of the Parti Socialist or even a communist. People voted to eliminate Sarkozy. And then Juppé was eliminated despite having the support of most of the young people because he did some bad things in the past. 

 

Now, onto Fillon himself, let me give you some examples for his program (I'm taking that from the official website):

- Suppressing the tax on big fortunes

- Going back to 39 hours of work a week instead of 35 for state employees only

- Adoption allowed only for heterosexual couples

- Thinking of having a uniform for students (I've seen in England that it's totally useless)

- Controlling abortion (won't be so easy to have the right to abort for a woman, which is totally a political thing to decide, you know)

- Making a European Treasure to put together all the debts of the E.U. countries once the Central European Bank can decide on a global economic strategy 

- Evaluate the universities depending on how well students get a job after their studies, and of course, deciding on how much money you give them depending on this evaluation (great for Humanities, isn't it?)

 

Now, of course, there are also a damn lot of good promises. I mean, he's to be elected after all. 

And I remember seeing worse things, but too lazy right now to go on reading through his whole program and I start to confuse everything, so I'll stop here. 

Honestly, it will be the same as Clinton/Trump: a choice between the plague and the cholera. In the end, no one who makes you want to really vote for them. 



#262 Phenomiracle

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Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:22 PM

France is for worse in an extremely tight monetary union with Germany primarily. What is Fillon's plan to address the French high unemployment rate and low aggregate demand? How can he possibly push for serious reform if power is concentrated within the ECB?

 

- Making a European Treasure to put together all the debts of the E.U. countries once the Central European Bank can decide on a global economic strategy 

 

Just reading this makes me livid. Debt mutualization is a moral hazard monstrosity the likes of which would cripple Europe.


 

I really would like to sit down one day and engage with someone who will challenge my hard Euroscepticism on an economic and a civic government front. Too many Europeans in my circles are either Eurosceptics of various extents or pro-EU simply due to a vague, inexplicable notion of "promoting multiculturalism."

 

I would also like to understand the political mindset of Europeans when it comes to economic and national sovereignty. Perfectly understandable that the racist, xenophobic elements of the far-right antagonize the average tolerant Westerner. But have the long-ago regimes of Hitler and Mussolini truly traumatized Europe to the point of complete political aversion to any sort of regionalist, basic desire for total, unadulterated self-autonomy?

 

Maybe it's not relevant to me, as a born and raised American who will soon be a Canadian. But I would like to open my world.


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#263 Oben

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Posted 01 December 2016 - 05:30 AM

I really would like to sit down one day and engage with someone who will challenge my hard Euroscepticism on an economic and a civic government front. Too many Europeans in my circles are either Eurosceptics of various extents or pro-EU simply due to a vague, inexplicable notion of "promoting multiculturalism."

 

I would also like to understand the political mindset of Europeans when it comes to economic and national sovereignty. Perfectly understandable that the racist, xenophobic elements of the far-right antagonize the average tolerant Westerner. But have the long-ago regimes of Hitler and Mussolini truly traumatized Europe to the point of complete political aversion to any sort of regionalist, basic desire for total, unadulterated self-autonomy?

 

Maybe it's not relevant to me, as a born and raised American who will soon be a Canadian. But I would like to open my world.

 

I think a united EU has tangible benefits. Right now, we have 28 European countries (soon less) who are various sorts of, well, small. For instance, every European country right now runs its own military complete with its own Airforce and Navy (those with a shore), which costs way more money than it would if united, and is extremely overcomplex. Sure, you'd have some problems with a multilingual army, but it would be far easier to get to the NATO 2% (or more) if paying and organinizing it from a common ground. The same thing can be said about foreign policy - wouldn't Europe be stronger if it could act with its own voice? A fractured, regionalist Europe as you call it, would (as for example SE-Asia) only be a playball of superpowers, because their particular interests will always collide and can be abused easily. The EU barely found a united stance against Russia over Ukraine, where we should have had a much more concise position and strategy.  You can see, I want my EU as a superpower if possible ^^ This, of course, comes with a prize. In Germany for example, foreign policy is for a large part economic policy, and I highly doubt you could build an efficient political Union without a monetary union, and a monetary union without a fiscal and economical union. Since we want a common market anyway, that should follow from that direction too.

 

I need to stop here, but I can post more later.



#264 Funktastic

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Posted 01 December 2016 - 04:34 PM

Apparently Hollande won't run for re election, which surpises me a great deal.  



#265 DarkNemesis

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Posted 01 December 2016 - 05:17 PM

Apparently Hollande won't run for re election, which surpises me a great deal.  

 

Really? I haven't heard good things about that guy. :shrug:


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#266 Oben

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Posted 01 December 2016 - 05:43 PM

Really? I haven't heard good things about that guy. :shrug:

 

The thing is that he decided it for himself, he wasn't thrown out / overvoted or something. Which is a hard decision.



#267 azer_moli

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 11:56 AM

After Austria not so long ago, France now has to choose between an extreme right party (which also want a "Frexit" (out of the U.E.)), and a banker. 

Around where I live and teach, the scores for Marine Le Pen (extreme right wing, le Front National) have been between 35 and 50% just for the first round. 

Because I can't state my opinion in front of my classes, I've cut down every discussion on politics with my students, but the little they said was "Vote Marine Le Pen, she'll throw all the migrants out!", which is, given their age, what their parents must be saying. 

 

In any case, while many assure that Macron (the banker) will win, I'm pretty sure Marine Le Pen will score high, though it probably won't be as close as for the Austrian elections last year. 

 

Anyway, on a more general scale, many of those who vote for Marine Le Pen do it for the Frexit. 

And what they want is roughly:

- getting back to a national money (as if that could be viable), because the € made everything more expensive;

- putting back real frontiers with controls to stop migrants from coming;

- not being anymore under the laws of the U.E. for the agricultural matters, because farmers struggle because of Europe (I wonder where the help they get come from, if not U.E, eh)

- being free of U.E. laws as well for entreprises, because we need to promote French firms rather than being obliged to take the least expensive one. 

 

I know the U.E. is not perfect as it, but it's a bit scary how people are rejecting it more and more strongly. 



#268 DarkNemesis

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 12:02 PM

On the offchance, Le Pen wins, how long do you think it will take for a Frexit to be triggered? And if Frexit happens, is that the E.U. as we know it? IOW, E.U. is dead and we're back to the "Un-united Countries of Europe".


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#269 azer_moli

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 12:42 PM

On the offchance, Le Pen wins, how long do you think it will take for a Frexit to be triggered? And if Frexit happens, is that the E.U. as we know it? IOW, E.U. is dead and we're back to the "Un-united Countries of Europe".

 

Thing is, it will also depend on the Législatives (elections for the deputies of the National Assembly) because the elected president will have to make his government with whoever gets the majority there. 

Therefore, even if Marine Le Pen wins, she might end up with a government from the Left wing (would be kind of fun).

But... there's a clause in the constitution that we discovered during Hollande's presidency: 49:3; with that, she might apply a law without the approval of the National Assembly, and she can also use her veto for every decision. 

It will be a mess. 

 

Now, to really try to answer your question, given that it's one of her main promises, she would try to make the Frexit happen as soon as possible. If it were to happen, there should be a referendum, like in the UK. But last time we had a referendum about Europe, it was under Sarkozy, and the majority said "no" to the European Constitution, and Sarkozy completely ignored it. But we're not like the UK, that never got in the € zone and all. France and Germany are kind of the pillars of Europe, so it seems huge to have France leaving the U.E... 

France may be one of the biggest contributors in terms of money, it's also one of the countries that receives a large amount of money in a counter-part. On an economical basis, the U.E. should manage without France. The problem will come in terms of politics, because it may lead to other countries leaving the UE as well. Austria, for example... But others will try their best to keep the U.E united, promising, maybe, the return of France as soon as Le Pen has done her five years, or as soon as she's kicked out. 

 

Anyway, Germany won't give up on Europe, on that long-forgotten dream of the United States of Europe, and the U.E. should survive. Or maybe it's just my foolish hope. But it's way too great to have a common money, to be able to go so easily to one state to another, etc. And I do believe we're stronger, economically, when we're united. 



#270 Narubi

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 01:03 AM

Been hearing about this Le Pen lately and some of what she wants to do.

 

One thing that caught my attention was her wanting to close down all Mosque's and prohibit Middle Easterners from wearing specific clothing that's part of their culture an all. An say she does win the election, and put's this into effect. What do you see coming out of this from the Middle Eastern community and anyone who might support them against Le Pen an everyone in support as well enforcing her law?

 

Also if she wants to stop all immigration or whatever, what about those already in the country? I mean what will her an her supporters do with them?



#271 azer_moli

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 06:27 AM

Been hearing about this Le Pen lately and some of what she wants to do.

 

One thing that caught my attention was her wanting to close down all Mosque's and prohibit Middle Easterners from wearing specific clothing that's part of their culture an all. An say she does win the election, and put's this into effect. What do you see coming out of this from the Middle Eastern community and anyone who might support them against Le Pen an everyone in support as well enforcing her law?

 

Also if she wants to stop all immigration or whatever, what about those already in the country? I mean what will her an her supporters do with them?

 

She doesn't actually want to stop immigration completely. 

She wants to stop it for a bit so that the administration can be up to date with who has a visa, for how long, etc. 

She also wants to send away the immigrants who don't get the right of asylum, because she says France doesn't have the means to keep illegal immigrants on its territory. 

She wants more student immigration, especially from Africa, so that after they've followed a French university program, they can go back to their country and be useful there. 

 

Now, about muslim-related clothes (I actually had to check her website for that...) 

Basically, there was a law in 2004 that forbade burqa in schools, and she wants to extend it to public places: in your house, you're free to wear whatever you want, but in entreprises, being in public space, you need to respect the fact that it's a laic/secular country. Just like women have to wear a veil when they go to some countries with a strong Muslim majority to follow the way of the country, here women would have not to wear anything ostentatious concerning religion. It excepts religious people, may they be nuns or imams. It's also supposed to protect women, so that they don't appear submissive from the get-go.

And for mosques, you just got journalists not doing their job properly again. She never meant to close all the mosques in the country, given that it goes against the Constitution since you have the freedom of religion here. What she meant was to close the mosques with a salafist doctrine. She implies the mosques were the preaching might turn some Muslims into radicals and terrorists. The, the imams of those mosques would indeed be banned from the country. It's one of her solution to really do something about terrorism in France given that more and more people are becoming radicals. 

 

Finally, about the thoughts of Middle-Easterns, I can't affirm anything... Of course people would go in the streets, refuse not to wear the burqa, etc. Would there be revolts? Heck if I know. I used to have a friend who chose all by herself to wear the veil --no one in her family did-- so I know there are people who wear it by choice, not because they are forced to. What I'm scared of is that it might give a climate similar to the Occupation (when Germany occupied France during WW2). Back then, people were denouncing Jews, if she's elected, they might denounce women wearing a veil... what a bright future.



#272 DarkNemesis

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 07:44 AM

So the thing about your post is this.... it doesn't sound unreasonable. At least, these parts:
 

She doesn't actually want to stop immigration completely.
She wants to stop it for a bit so that the administration can be up to date with who has a visa, for how long, etc.
She also wants to send away the immigrants who don't get the right of asylum, because she says France doesn't have the means to keep illegal immigrants on its territory.
She wants more student immigration, especially from Africa, so that after they've followed a French university program, they can go back to their country and be useful there.


And on the surface, given how (western) women are expected to respect the culture when in muslim countries and the security situation in France, this doesn't sound overtly fascist as well:
 

Now, about muslim-related clothes (I actually had to check her website for that...)
Basically, there was a law in 2004 that forbade burqa in schools, and she wants to extend it to public places: in your house, you're free to wear whatever you want, but in entreprises, being in public space, you need to respect the fact that it's a laic/secular country. Just like women have to wear a veil when they go to some countries with a strong Muslim majority to follow the way of the country, here women would have not to wear anything ostentatious concerning religion. It excepts religious people, may they be nuns or imams. It's also supposed to protect women, so that they don't appear submissive from the get-go.
And for mosques, you just got journalists not doing their job properly again. She never meant to close all the mosques in the country, given that it goes against the Constitution since you have the freedom of religion here. What she meant was to close the mosques with a salafist doctrine. She implies the mosques were the preaching might turn some Muslims into radicals and terrorists. The, the imams of those mosques would indeed be banned from the country. It's one of her solution to really do something about terrorism in France given that more and more people are becoming radicals.


And if people just take her at face value and don't examine the nuances, history, and possible ramifications of these laws, which most people don't, then I can definitely see the populace agreeing with and voting for those policies. Even if she doesn't win the Presidency, she may end up having (increased) sizable representation in Parliament (French version).


Edited by DarkNemesis, 26 April 2017 - 12:12 PM.

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#273 azer_moli

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 10:50 AM


So the thing about your post is this.... it doesn't sound unreasonable.

 

It's not unreasonable, indeed. She's far from stupid, and her program, though bad in some ways, is actually better than Macron in many others. 

But she's the candidate of the Front National, which is borderline fascist. If she's elected, no matter what she wants, people will feel entitled to use violence against minorities (including sexual ones), because those elections would have proven that French people are ready to vote for the candidate of a racist party. 

I honestly can't say that she is bad in herself, but her party is, and I don't want to see a France going full racism. It is already getting stronger in France, and people who don't fit the "white heterosexual good little French" already struggle enough as it is. When some say that the FN is close to neo-nazism, it's not all wrong... 



#274 Funktastic

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 11:07 AM

So the thing about your post is this.... it doesn't sound unreasonable. At least, these parts:
 

And on the surface, given how (western) women are expected to respect the culture when in muslim countries and the security situation in France, this doesn't sound overtly fascist as well:
 

And if people just take her at face value and examine the nuances, history, and possible ramifications of these laws, which most people don't, then I can definitely see the populace agreeing with and voting for those policies. Even if she doesn't win the Presidency, she may end up having (increased) sizable representation in Parliament (French version).

 

Oh, let there be no doubt, Le Pen is a representative of France's far right movement. Her rhetoric is much better than some of her predecessors -- but her propogated policies stem from a nationalistic and totalitarian ideology. Her wanting to stop immigration "temporarily" is a deflection from the fact that if and when she reopens France's borders, immigration policies would be very strict. Her candicacy thrives on depicting muslims negatively and many speculate that immigration from these countries would be kept to a minimum, under the pretence of "keeping France safe from potential terrorists" or "not assimilating their cultural view of honor and women with France's". The fact that she is still willing to accept foreign exchange students is a surprisingly low standard to which to hold her.

 

The distinction between a persons "public" sphere from their "private" sphere has been used several times throughout history as a means to oppress the minority. Another contemporary example would be Russia that recently banned all kinds of proselyting, other than the russian orthodox church, and just banned Jehovas Witnesses from the country, forcing them to close all of their congregations and siezing all of their assets. Their reasoning was that they didn't want religious influence, which they considered hateful, to sprout and effect "Russian values". Apparently you can be a Jehovas Witness in the privaty of your home -- anything else is considered to be the public sphere. Le Pens reasoning is strikingly similar. 

 

Anyway, Le Pen is a populist with all what that entails. Does she have some good points? Sure. I would probably even agree with Kim Jong-Un on a few issues. Are her proposed solutions good? No. Her solutions are harmful and reeks of a big-brother state. What she has going for her though is that she is willing to address issues that other parties hesitate to address.  


Edited by Funktastic, 26 April 2017 - 03:50 PM.

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