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The likelihood of war by 2017


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#21 Oben

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Posted 01 December 2015 - 10:43 AM

Now Russia is building military bases on Japanese islands.
 
I'm not sure if it's a means of "containing" China or just an opportunity grab. I do know that the US now have two real theatres of potential action. God forbid Taiwan gets invaded or Japanese invokes some National Security Treaty Clause. Either one forcing us to action.


All of these are problems that have been around since decades. Russia has those islands occupied since WWII, and the Taiwan situation has been there since the end of the Chinese Civil War as well. Sure, Japan only recently allowed itself to deploy forces abroad, but they are closely allied with the West, and as of now, any open action by others against the US + Allies is suicide.

#22 DarkNemesis

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 12:04 PM

Language like this from anyone does not help tensions..

 

China, Russia and Pakistan: the world’s new superpower axis

Granted the article is a bit sensationalist. However, if this is the language being used, then the war drums have gotten a bit louder if not a bit faster.


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#23 Oben

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 01:07 PM

Remember how George Bush coined the term Axis of Evil?



#24 DarkNemesis

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 01:20 PM

And remember how that turned out?


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#25 Oben

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 01:26 PM

War happened with only one member of the Axis of Evil (Iraq), while North Korea mostly stayed the same and it's getting somewhat better with Iran recently :shrug:



#26 DarkNemesis

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 01:59 PM

War happened with only one member of the Axis of Evil (Iraq), while North Korea mostly stayed the same and it's getting somewhat better with Iran recently  :shrug:

 

That's a very optimistic outlook on that...

 

I remember going into Iraq and ....

  1. Destablizing the country.
  2. Throwing out and disenfranchising the Baath Army.
  3. In turn creating Al-Qaeda in Iraq and a separate Sunni insurgency.
  4. Removing the only effective counter to Iran.
  5. Watching Iran grow in strength.
  6. Further bolstering insurgent groups (ex: Hezbollah)
  7. Being a major player in the Syrian and Iraqi governments
  8. Soon after destabilizing the ME region.
  9. Which led to the civil war in Syria.
  10. Which led to the creation of ISIS.
  11. Which led to the neutering of Saudi Arabia.
  12. And which led to the deft maneuvering of Turkey which in fact assisted ISIS earlier in the Syrian civil war to further damage rival Syria.

 

But North Korea has pretty much stayed the same.


Edited by DarkNemesis, 02 December 2015 - 01:59 PM.

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#27 Oben

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 02:27 PM

That's a very optimistic outlook on that...
 
I remember going into Iraq and ....


  • Destablizing the country.
  • Throwing out and disenfranchising the Baath Army.
  • In turn creating Al-Qaeda in Iraq and a separate Sunni insurgency.
  • Removing the only effective counter to Iran.
  • Watching Iran grow in strength.
  • Further bolstering insurgent groups (ex: Hezbollah)
  • Being a major player in the Syrian and Iraqi governments
  • Soon after destabilizing the ME region.
  • Which led to the civil war in Syria.
  • Which led to the creation of ISIS.
  • Which led to the neutering of Saudi Arabia.
  • And which led to the deft maneuvering of Turkey which in fact assisted ISIS earlier in the Syrian civil war to further damage rival Syria.
But North Korea has pretty much stayed the same.


Sure, Iraq was a fuck-up. But comparing the Axis of Evil to the WWII-Axis (which you were implying) is out of proportion. Even if media blow everything up, we're still faaar from the wars in the first half of the 20th century.

Also, I'd argue that the Syrian civil war didn't grow out of the Iraq War. The Arab Spring started in Tunisia, after all, and the sparked conflicts everywhere from Algeria to Yemen, unrelated to the Iraq War. Also, Saudi-Arabia has a lot of dirt in its backyard as well - Saudi ideology took a pretty big part in creating modern day radical islam, and early in the war, the gulf states poured money into nigh every rebel group regardless of it's outlook, most likely also the IS, and they have their own bombing campaign in Yemen.

#28 DarkNemesis

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 02:35 PM

But comparing the Axis of Evil to the WWII-Axis (which you were implying) is out of proportion.


You misunderstand my implication. Yes the 'axis' in my OP is obviously referring to WW2 Axis. But I'm not saying they were the same thing. What I am saying is that when people start using that language, like they did in 2001 thru 2003, that means that someone (or some people) is trying drum up the justification for war. Incite FUD in the worst way to eventually get a war. So WW2 Axis was certainly a real thing. The 'Axis of Evil' was used to justify actual and potential military action on a number of fronts. Now we have this article calling Pakistan, China, and Russia, the new superpower axis. Again, using the language doesn't it's on the same level as WW2. But that author and some readers may use that language to justify war actions (future or otherwise).

Basically, the mere mention of 'axis' in an geo-political or military situation is a strong indicator that someone is trying to make that situation far worse than what it actually is.

Edited by DarkNemesis, 02 December 2015 - 02:38 PM.

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#29 kenkage

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 04:40 PM

Language like this from anyone does not help tensions..


China, Russia and Pakistan: the world’s new superpower axis
Granted the article is a bit sensationalist. However, if this is the language being used, then the war drums have gotten a bit louder if not a bit faster.

the article doesn't really make any sense , Russia doesn't need nuclear help from any country because they already have a nuclear arsenal powerfull enough to take out whoever it's their adversary (ofcourse the same thing goes for the US) , in adition Pakistan is perhaps one of the last countries that Russia would trust if they faced an existintional threat that's WW3, just because China is an ally of Pakistan that doesn't mean the Pakis & the Russians will become close allies all of a sudden. Moscow's relations with India were always much better than it's relations with Pakistan , infact Moscow & Islamabad used to be enemies , but ofcourse that's gradually changing now especially after Beijing & Moscow decided to add Pakistan & India to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), at first the SCO's main goal was to keep NATO out of central Asia but now after they have largely succeeded in this they decided to move to southern Asia , Pakistan used to be an ally of the US but now they seem to be embracing this idea of an Asian century , I think the same thing also goes for Afghanistan.

Edited by kenkage, 02 December 2015 - 05:22 PM.

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#30 GintaMan

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Posted 02 December 2015 - 04:54 PM

Language like this from anyone does not help tensions..

 

China, Russia and Pakistan: the world’s new superpower axis

Granted the article is a bit sensationalist. However, if this is the language being used, then the war drums have gotten a bit louder if not a bit faster.

 

 

Yeah they're just causing more confusion to ordinary people who are not well-versed when it comes to geopolitics. The article is downright delusional, it's like the author is looking at it like a video game or something.

 

Anyways, the sudden sale of advanced jet fighters might mean 2 things: One, Russia is so cash-strapped right now, they're willing to sell their slight advantage to rising world powers; two, they're willing to sell because they have already developed a more advanced model that we don't know of and just using the sale to fund them.


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#31 JasonDM

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Posted 16 February 2016 - 09:05 PM

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are going to invade Syria unless the Russians/Assad surrender basically. I don't see why the Russians would stick around, It can't be worth it for them, going to full scale war over a conflict between Islam countries. Putin is better then people give him credit for but he needs to follow his own advice to America and stay out of international disputes and worry about continuing to try to strengthen his country internally.

#32 Rikilamaru

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Posted 18 February 2016 - 01:16 PM

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are going to invade Syria unless the Russians/Assad surrender basically. I don't see why the Russians would stick around, It can't be worth it for them, going to full scale war over a conflict between Islam countries. Putin is better then people give him credit for but he needs to follow his own advice to America and stay out of international disputes and worry about continuing to try to strengthen his country internally.

i dont think russia will back down






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